589
FXUS65 KVEF 031201 CCA
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
450 AM PDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Drier, cooler, and breezy conditions expected through the work
  week.

* Rain and storm chances return Saturday afternoon and Sunday as
  monsoonal moisture surges northward

* Drier conditions for Labor Day, monsoonal moisture and warmer
  temperatures may return mid next week.

&&


.DISCUSSION...Through Mid Next Week.

Upper troughing persist along the west coast for at least the next
week keeping southwesterly flow aloft for the Desert Southwest. This
pattern supports below average temperatures and breezy conditions
locally into the Holiday weekend. Hi-res short term models and
longer range guidance both show negative 850 mb temperature
anomalies persisting with this weather pattern, raising confidence
that surface temperatures will continue to run around 5 to as much
as 10 degrees below normal... translating to highs in the 80s-90s
for Desert Valleys, low 100s for the CRV and Death Valley, and
cooler in the higher terrain. In addition to cooler temperatures,
breezy conditions are expected through at least Saturday as mixing
into an enhance mid level jet brings stronger gusts down to the
surface. The EC EFI has been highlighting Friday and to some extent
Saturday as the windier days within the forecast period. High
confidence exists in afternoon S-SW wind gusts reaching 30-40 mph
the next several days... with Friday likely seeing the more
widespread wind gusts nearing 40 mph or greater at times. Highest
wind gusts will likely be at higher elevations or in wind prone
valleys. In this pattern, expect winds to remain elevated during the
overnight hours as well around 10-15 mph with isolated gusts of 20
mph or greater.

While the southwesterly flow pattern will keep conditions relatively
dry through the desert southwest as monsoonal moisture remains
shunted to the south...Saturday afternoon into Sunday look to be the
exception as tropical moisture is drawn northward from the East
Pacific. While the main systems will remain out at sea, confidence
is increasing in a surge of moisture northward through the Colorado
River Valley and into the Great Basin Saturday afternoon through
Sunday. Precipitable water values of at least an inch reach the I-15
corridor and southern portions of Nevada by Sunday. An associated
mid-upper shortwave moving north from the Pacific into the CRV will
provide enough lift to spark off showers and isolated convection
beginning Saturday in the CRV and Mohave County, then chances spread
northward Sunday covering much of the Mojave Desert and lower Great
Basin. Surface-based and MU CAPE looks rather marginal this weekend,
potentially limiting the amount of convection and upscale growth of
cells. DCAPE does not look overly impressive, but >1000j/kg values
should still support the possibility of gusty winds and downbursts
with some storms.  Still enough forcing and moisture should be in
place for at least numerous shower activity as the shortwave passes
through the region. With increased clouds and convection in the
area, Sunday will likely be the coolest day in the forecast period
as highs struggle to even reach 90F in Desert Valleys.

Looking toward next week, longer range guidance shows drier air
filtering back into the region Labor Day and Tuesday. A
Southwesterly flow pattern looks to somewhat remain in place next
week, however there are hints that the upper jet could retreat
northward as ridging tries to rebuild from New Mexico westward into
the Mojave Desert. While Monday and Tuesday look much drier than
Sunday, watching for signals that a monsoonal pattern may be trying
to set up again going into mid to late next week. Lower confidence
exists in the overall details, but confidence is slowly increasing
in a pattern supportive of monsoon activity returning, which is also
reflected in CPC`s 6-10 day precipitation outlook. CPC 6-10 day
outlook shows no strong signals for a pattern supportive of either
above or below normal temperatures locally as ridging and associated
heat remain to the east; however if the monsoon ridge does in fact
build westward later next week, temperatures may also warm back to
near or above normal.



&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...
Another night of elevated south-southwesterly wind gusts observed in
the Valley as a 25-35 kt low level jet remains overhead. This
pattern is expected to persist for the next 24-36+ hours,
particularly going into Friday as the LLJ strengthens further. While
gusts early this morning will be more isolated with winds speeds
diminishing at times, expect a quick increase in wind speeds and
gusts after 15-16z with gusts peaking at 25-30 kts. Expect winds to
diminish somewhat overnight, but confidence is fairly high that
speeds remain around 10-15 kts with isolated gusts around 20 kts
continuing into Friday morning. No operationally significant cloud
cover through the TAF period. Temperatures will remain below 100
degrees.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Generally south-
southwest winds continue through the TAF period, with gusts between
20 and 30 kts. Sustained winds will remain elevated overnight
tonight again around 10-15 kts with isolated gusts possible. The
exception will be KDAG where gusty west winds can be expected
through the TAF period, peaking late afternoon into the evening
hours. No operationally significant cloud cover through the TAF
period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Moore
AVIATION...Moore

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office