979
FXUS66 KLOX 042215
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
215 PM PST Wed Mar 4 2026

.SYNOPSIS...04/840 AM.

Near to slightly above normal are temperatures expected through
Friday, except significant cooling in the mountains and interior
areas Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will increase region wide
Saturday and Sunday. Strong and gusty northerly winds expected
across much of the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Moderate to strong Santa Ana winds likely over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...04/208 PM.

The forecast through Friday remains largely unchanged. The first
of two upper level lows will move through tonight into Thursday
morning bringing significant northerly winds to many areas, but
especially the mountains. Winds are expected to reach at least 60
mph across the interior Santa Barbara mountains, in and around the
mountains surrounding the Grapevine area, and in the San Gabriel
Mountains. There`s about a 30% chance of 60 mph gusts in the Santa
Monica Mountains and 10-20% across the LA County portion of the
Malibu coast. There could also be some isolated gusts 60 mph gusts
in and around the Simi Valley hills, Santa Susana Mountains, and
in the Porter Ranch area. Also, still expecting windy conditions
filtering down into the West LA area and out across the coastal
waters, including all the Channel Islands. One area to be mindful
of that is currently not included in the current suite of wind
hazards in the San Gabriel Valley. This is typically protected by
the mountains but if the upper level jet shifts more to the north
to align favorably over that area there could be some strong
winds at times there as well but chances for that would be under
10% at this time.

Temperatures at higher elevations and far interior areas will
drop several degrees Thursday but closer to the coast not much
change expected as downslope warming will compensate for most of
the cold air advection.

Some light showers are still possible (30-50%) near the north
facing mountain slopes later tonight into Thursday morning with
the snow level lowering rapidly overnight to possibly around 4000
feet, meaning some very light snow is possible near the summit on
I5, but only a 5% chance or less of any accumulations at that
level.

The pattern will shift from a north flow wind event to a
traditional Santa Ana event Friday into Saturday with offshore
gradients between 6 and 8mb. Temperatures will be on the rise,
especially by Saturday with most coast/valley areas in the mid to
upper 70s and possibly an isolated 80. Many of the previous wind
advisories and warnings will be back in play Friday and Saturday
with the focus shifting to the usual Santa Ana wind favored areas,
which would not include the LA Basin, the San Gabriel Valley, or
SLO and SB Counties, except possibly the Santa Lucias.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...04/215 PM.

Offshore gradients will continue into Sunday but with slowly
weakening upper support and a much warmer air mass. Will likely
need continue wind advisories in many of the same areas.
Temperatures will be warming up quite a bit with highs in 80s for
most coast/valley areas, including the Central Coast. There`s
event about a 40-50% chance of lower 90s across LA/Ventura
Counties.

Above normal temperatures will continue into early next week,
though light onshore flow is expected to return Tuesday and highs
will be back into the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...04/2019Z.

Around 1915Z, the marine layer was around 2200 ft deep at KLAX.
The top of the inversion was around 3300 feet with a temperature
near 17 degrees Celsius.

Moderate to high confidence exists in the current forecast. High
confidence exists in the forecast in desert terminals. Lower
confidence exists in the forecast for all remaining terminals,
lowest for Los Angeles County coastal terminals. Timing of winds
and flight category changes could be off by up to two hours
earlier or later. Periods of moderate to strong wind shear and
turbulence will be possible after 20Z. There is chance that MVFR
conditions may linger through the day at Ventura and Los Angeles
County coastal terminals.

KLAX...MVFR conditions could clear as soon as 21Z but more likely
around 22Z. There is a 30 percent chance of clearing at all with
MVFR conditions remaining in at KLAX through at least 08Z
Thursday. North winds greater than 10 knots are likely after 07Z
Thursday. There is a 20 percent chance that wind gusts to 25 knots
may not occur after 10Z. There is a 10 percent chance of
sustained northerly cross winds greater than 20 knots between 10Z
and 16Z. Periods of moderate to strong low-level wind shear and
turbulence are likely between 10Z and 16Z.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period, but there
is a low chance of MVFR visibilities developing overnight for up
to two hours. North winds greater than 10 knots are likely after
04Z Thursday. There is a 10 percent chance that wind gusts to 25
knots may not occur after 10Z. There is a 20 percent chance of
sustained northerly winds greater than 20 knots between 08Z and
16Z. Periods of moderate to strong low-level wind shear and
turbulence are likely between 08Z and 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...04/1219 PM.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Higher
confidence exists in the forecast for winds. Less confidence in
the forecast for seas. Seas could be up to 1-3 feet higher than
forecast, especially today through Saturday.

Marine weather conditions will deteriorate through tonight with
widespread strong Small Craft Advisory (SCA) and GALE conditions
expected through at least Thursday night. GALE WARNINGS remain in
effect through Friday morning for some waters.

Another period of strong winds will develop across the region as
an offshore flow pattern will set up Friday through Sunday. There
is a high to likely (40 to 60 percent) chance of SCA level winds
between Friday night and Sunday. There is a moderate (30-40
percent) chance of GALE FORCE wind gusts inside the southern
California bight, and high (40-50 percent) chance of SCA level
winds along the nearshore waters of the Central Coast.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from midnight tonight to 9 AM
      PST Thursday for zones 87-366-367. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect from 6 PM this evening to 9
      AM PST Thursday for zones 88-371>375. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 2 AM PST Thursday for
      zones 346-347. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM PST Thursday for
      zones 349>352-356-357-381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning remains in effect until 7 AM PST Thursday
      for zones 353-376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning remains in effect from 2 AM to 9 AM PST
      Thursday for zones 362-369-370. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning remains in effect from 9 PM this evening to
      9 AM PST Thursday for zones 379-380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon
      for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 9 AM PST Thursday for zones
      645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST
      Thursday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...BL

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office