469
FXUS66 KLOX 031039
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
339 AM PDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...03/1251 AM.

Quiet pattern through Friday with below normal temperatures,
occasional patchy marine layer clouds, and breezy onshore winds.
There is the potential for widespread light showers with
increasing temperatures and humidity over Labor Day Weekend.
Increasing southerly swell will create hazardous surf conditions
at the coasts.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...03/117 AM.

Expecting a fairly quiet period through Friday as an upper level
trough will continue to bring cooler than seasonal normal
temperatures to the region, with very little day to day changes
in sensible weather. We`re forecasting temperatures to generally
be 5-10 degrees below normal for early September each day. Onshore
flow will be fairly breezy each afternoon through evening, with
gustier than normal winds at the coasts. Additionally, light to
locally moderate Sundowner winds will occur each night.

The most difficult aspect of the forecast the next two days is
the same as the last two, the marine layer coverage. Once again
the marine layer is playing hide and seek and has yet to be found
outside of the Central Coast, where patchy low cloud and fog
coverage is rather meager, yet better than last night. Expecting
more coverage tonight across the Central Coast, even potentially
into the southern Salinas Valley as the lowering 500 mb heights
and uptick in onshore flow will help push clouds inland. Current
thinking is that we should see better coverage down south tonight
into Friday morning for the reasons mentioned earlier as well as
weakening Sundowner wind activity. However, this is a low
confidence forecast due to the marine layer really being non
existent the last couple of days.

All eyes shift to Saturday as the tropical influences of the much
talked about Hurricane Marie will begin to be felt, at least south
of Point Conception. As models and ensembles have finally begun to
come into better agreement, it is more clear that Hurricane Marie
is likely to follow a northwest trajectory, well away from the
California Coast. Temperatures are expected to increase slightly
Saturday and it will feel a little more humid by the afternoon as
PWATs begin to increase to around 1 inch down south. A very small
chance of showers enters the forecast by Saturday night.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...03/117 AM.

As Marie tracks northwest, some of its moisture is forecast to be
siphoned into Southern California by the cyclonic flow of the
upper low (trough) and the anticyclonic flow of the upper level
ridge over the Central US. This northwest track for Marie has all
but shut the door on the potential for very significant impacts
over our area such as significant winds or flooding, but a very,
very small chance for higher impacts does still exist. There is a
moderate to high chance of widespread relatively rain (focused
south of Point Concpetion) starting on Sunday and continuing into
Tuesday. While most members of the European Ensemble are showing
little to very light rainfall, there are still a few that show
over an inch of rain, so there still is potential for some more
moderate rainfall. Additionally, there is a 5-10% chance of
thunderstorms focused Sunday. Overall southern California can
expect a slight warm up with more humid conditions along with
periods of rain which could certainly dampen outdoor plans.
Additionally, very strong rip currents and large surf are
expected. Refer to the beaches section below for further details.

Starting Wednesday the GFS and EC begin to tell very stories. The
GFS favors that trough dipping down in the Central California
which would bring cooler temperatures and likely some fairly
breezy southwest onshore flow. The EC marches that ridge west into
the 4 Corners, bring much warmer temperatures and even the chance
for monsoonal convection with increased humidity.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1038Z.

At 0812Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion.

High confidence in VFR conditions for KSBA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and
KWJF. 10% chance for brief IFR-MVFR conds at KSBA/KBUR/KVNY
through 17Z.

Moderate confidence in TAF for KPRB. 30% chance for IFR conds
through 17Z, then good confidence in MVFR conds returning around
10Z/04.

Low confidence in remaining sites through 18Z due to very patchy
and sporadic marine layer coverage. Cigs may occur at any site and
may bounce between SCT and BKN. Periods of LIFR conds are
possible at KSMX/KSBP. Better confidence in IFR-MVFR conds
returning later tonight especially on the Central Coast.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. 010-015 cigs may bounce between SCT
and BKN008-012 cigs through 17Z, leading to frequent cat changes.
50% chance of no cigs late tonight. Good confidence in any east
wind component remaining below 8 kt.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF, with a 10% chance for brief IFR-
MVFR conds through 17Z. Lower confidence tonight with a 30% chance
for IFR-MVFR cigs after 10Z/04.

&&

.MARINE...03/1252 AM.

Moderate confidence in period of Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
northwest winds across portions of the Outer Waters at times
through Labor Day Weekend, with highest confidence over the next
24 hours southwest of Point Sal. Local SCA wind gusts may occur in
the afternoon-evening hours in the nearshore waters along the
Central Coast.

Moderate confidence in SCA west winds through western and southern
portions of the Santa Barbara Channel once again this afternoon,
with lower chances compared to yesterday, with lowering chances
Friday through Labor Day Weekend. Local SCA gusts may occur this
afternoon and evening across the Santa Monica Bay and San Pedro
Channel, with lowering winds over Labor Day Weekend.

Expecting increasing southerly swell Friday through Labor Day
Weekend weekend due to tropical activity to the south. Much of the
guidance indicates a northwestward track of Hurricane Marie well
away from Southern California, but still a larger than normal
southerly swell may create breaking waves at exposed south facing
harbor entrances south of Point Conception. Additionally,
widespread light rain is likely Saturday-Tuesday, especially
south of Point Conception, with a 5-10% chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.BEACHES...03/1252 AM.

Guidance is starting to fall into much better agreement that
Hurricane Marie will take northwestward track well away from
Southern California. However, a large southerly swell will still
impacts much of SoCal Friday through Tuesday. This most likely
track would produce elevated surf for south facing beaches (with
possible high surf advisories) during a very busy holiday weekend,
with very strong rip currents. Peak timing is still somewhat
unclear, but Sunday through Monday appear to be the window of peak
swell. The Central Coast will likely see some elevated surf and
rip currents, but not to the magnitude of southern areas.

Additionally, evening high tides are expected to be around 7 feet
during portions of the event. As a result, there is an increasing
chance of moderate coastal flooding of low-lying areas and
significant beach erosion. There is a chance that coastal flood
advisories will be issued, with highest probabilities across Los
Angeles and Ventura Counties.

Some areas that may be most susceptible to impacts from the
combined elevated surf and high tides are Avalon, Long Beach
(Alamitos Peninsula), Malibu, and Point Mugu.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT early this morning for
      zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Friday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewis
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
BEACHES...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Lewis

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office