788
FXUS66 KLOX 040052
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
452 PM PST Tue Mar 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...03/856 AM.

Near to slightly above normal are temperatures expected through
at least Saturday, except significant cooling in the mountains and
interior areas starting Thursday. Strong and gusty winds expected
across much of the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Strong Santa Ana winds possible over weekend with warming
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...03/148 PM.

Complex weather pattern this week. The main takeaway is it`s going
to be very windy in some areas, especially later Wednesday into
Thursday morning, and again over the weekend. The first wind event
will be a northerly wind resulting from the passage of the first
of two inside slider troughs. Hi res models are consistent with
the deterministic runs showing strong northerly flow aloft
aligning favorably with north flow at lower levels. Not
surprisingly ensemble pressure gradients are showing a 6-8mb north
gradient setting up as well. And the EC is also showing strong
northerly flow. Areas most affected will be the mountains, but
winds will filter down into the valleys and some coastal areas,
including the Malibu coast and southwestern Santa Barbara County.
But strong winds also expected in many of the LA/Ventura County
valleys and possibly even through the west side of the LA Basin
from Santa Monica to Palos Verdes. A slew of wind advisories and
watches have been issued and taking effect late Wednesday
afternoon or early Thursday.

Significant cooling is expected in the mountains Thursday as the
first upper low moves through. There is some moisture with it
though not much as the trajectory is from the northeast. So some
light showers with lowering snow levels are possible near the
north facing slopes, especially from Sandberg west through the
Santa Barbara County mountains. Snow levels may get down to around
4000 feet so there is at least 10-20 percent chance of very light
snow over the Grapevine on I5 early Thursday morning.

At lower elevations, especially south of Pt Conception, the
downsloping flow off the Transverse range will compensate for the
cold air advection, keeping temperatures near to slightly above
normal through the week.

On Friday and early Saturday a second backdoor upper low will
move through southern California. There is still a lot of
uncertainty with this upper low so expect at least some
adjustments moving forward. For now, this low will be colder as
models bring the low directly overhead and then out over the ocean
rather than the traditional path through interior California.
Because of this winds aloft will be veering to the east while
lower level winds are also simultaneously veering to the east in
response to a strong offshore gradient trends. Ensemble solutions
indicate offshore gradients will peak out around -6 to -8mb
Saturday. In a bit of good news models have, at least for now,
shifted the upper level jet with 140kt winds farther to the north
over the Central Coast so that the winds aloft are not aligned
with the lower level winds as they were on yesterday`s models.
Still, the potential for strong Santa Ana winds is there for the
usual Santa Ana wind prone areas of LA/Ventura Counties, starting
Friday but peaking Saturday. There is plenty of time for the
mostly cutoff low to take a different path so will keep a close on
the track and refine the forecast as needed. But for now there is
a potential for strong Santa Anas Friday through Sunday.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...03/145 PM.

Adding more uncertainty to the forecast for early next week,
based on the latest projections the upper low will reverse course
late Sunday and move back onshore Monday and Tuesday. A small
percentage of the ensemble solutions indicate that the upper low
will pick up some moisture off the Pacific Ocean and drop some
light wrap around showers as far north as southern LA County. This
will most likely not happen but it`s not a zero chance either. In
any case, with the low moving inland and pressure gradients
rapidly trending onshore temperatures are expected to cool
slightly into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...04/0051Z.

At 00Z over KLAX, the marine layer depth was 900 feet deep at
KLAX. The top of the inversion was near 2200 feet with a
temperature around 19 degrees Celsius.

Moderate confidence in KLAX, KLGB, KSMO, KCMA, KOXR, KPRB with a
60-80 percent chance of MVFR/IFR or lower cigs/vsbys focused
between 10-20Z.

Low confidence in KBUR and KVNY with a 30-50 percent chance of IFR
or lower cigs/vsbys focused between 12-18Z.

High confidence elsewhere with 80 percent or greater chance of
VFR conds.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF with a 20 percent chance that
VFR conds prevail. Any east wind component should remain less
than 6 kt.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF between 10-18Z.

&&

.MARINE...03/902 AM.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast; seas could
be up to 1-3 feet higher than forecast, especially between
Wednesday and Friday.

Widespread SCA level winds are expected to rapidly increase again
this afternoon. SCA level winds will affect the outer waters and
the nearshore waters along the Central Coast through this
afternoon. Then, widespread strong SCA and GALE conditions (winds
and seas) will develop tonight through Friday.

An offshore flow pattern will set up Friday through Sunday, with a
moderate (30 to 50 percent) chance of SCA levels winds inside the
southern California bight and the nearshore waters along the
Central Coast, with winds likely peaking on Saturday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from midnight Wednesday night to 9 AM
      PST Thursday for zones 87-366-367. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM Wednesday to 9 AM PST
      Thursday for zones 88-371>375. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 4 PM Wednesday to 9 AM PST
      Thursday for zones 349-351-352-381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through
      Friday morning for zones 353-376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Watch in effect from late Wednesday night through
      Thursday morning for zones 362-369-370. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Watch in effect from Wednesday evening through
      Thursday morning for zones 379-380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Wednesday for
      zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM Wednesday to 9 AM PST
      Thursday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PST Friday
      for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 AM Wednesday to 3 AM PST Friday
      for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...jld
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office