658
FXUS66 KLOX 200823
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
123 AM PDT Mon Apr 20 2026

.SYNOPSIS...19/120 PM.

A cooling trend will continue through mid week as an approaching
storm brings a return to onshore flow. Light to moderate rain is
expected late Monday into Tuesday, focused over San Luis Obispo
County with minimal impacts. Widespread gusty west to northwest
winds will follow Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...19/812 PM.

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies as a batch of high clouds are drifting across
the area this evening. Current sounding data indicates marine
inversion around 800 feet in depth. Southwesterly winds, gusting
in the 25-35 MPH, are observed across interior sections.

Forecast-wise for the short term, primary focus remains on the
cutoff low, forecast to bring some wet and unsettled weather to
the area. Latest model data indicates nothing to really deviate
from current forecast. Rain will begin across SLO county late
Monday afternoon/evening, then will spread south and east Monday
night and Tuesday. By Tuesday evening, the rain will be tapering
off, with dry conditions expected on Wednesday. Rainfall totals
still look to be most impressive across SLO and SBA counties with
widespread 0.50" to 1.00" totals and local amounts up to around
1.50" across some foothill areas. For Ventura and LA counties, the
rain will lose some "oomph" with widespread totals of 0.33" or
less with local amounts up to around 0.75 across the Ventura
county mountains. Along with rain, there will be some increasing
instability moving into northern areas on Tuesday. So, there will
continue to be 15-20% chance of thunderstorms Tuesday, mainly
across SLO county. Rainfall rates with this system are expected to
be around 0.25" or less per hour. However, with any thunderstorm
development, rates up to around 0.50" per hour will be possible.
So, given the rainfall rates, no significant hydrologic issues are
expected. Based on current snow level forecasts, no significant
snowfall accumulation is anticipated in the local mountains.

As for winds, gusty southwesterly winds are expected Monday and
Tuesday across interior sections and could flirt with advisory
levels Tuesday afternoon/evening across the LA Mountains and
Antelope Valley. On Wednesday, the winds will shift to a more west
to northwest direction with advisory-level winds possible through
the I-5 Corridor as well as the western half of the Santa Ynez
Range.

As for temperatures, a noticeable cooling trend can be expected
through Tuesday with highs on Tuesday about 4-8 degrees below
normal for most areas. On Wednesday, temperatures will begin to
rebound a few degrees, climbing to around normal levels.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...19/214 PM.

Thursday and Friday will generally be free of any weather impacts
with mostly clear skies and temperatures near to slightly below
normal. This may continue through the weekend and into next week,
however there are quite a few models indicating at least some
very light rain, possibly as early as Saturday night along the
Central Coast and Sunday morning in LA County. Most solutions show
amounts under a quarter inch, and at least half of those, mainly
south of Pt Conception, from nothing to a tenth of an inch.

&&

.AVIATION...20/0822Z.

At 07Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was 1500 feet with a temperature of 15 C.

High confidence in CAVU conditions for KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and
KWJF. For KSBP and KSBA, there is a 30% chance of IFR/MVFR cigs
from 10Z-16Z. For all other sites coast and valley sites, cigs may
bounce between categories due to high clouds with a 20% chance of
mainly VFR conditions through the period.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance of
mainly VFR conditions through the period, if cigs do form they may
scatter and reform. No significant easterly wind component is
expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...20/123 AM.

A storm system will move over the coastal waters this afternoon
through Wednesday morning, bringing a chance of showers to much of
the area. Cannot rule out a thunderstorm or two across the
northern waters Tuesday morning.

SCA level southerly winds are expected to increase ahead of the
cold front, and while SCA level winds are not forecast, there is a
20-30% chance that SCA gusts could occur at times this afternoon
and evening, and possibly again Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday
evening winds will shift to the northwest behind the front,
increasing to SCA level NW winds Wednesday afternoon. These winds
will likely expand to include the majority of waters by Thursday
afternoon. Wednesday night there is a 40% chance of Gale Force
gusts over the southern waters, including portions of the
nearshore waters inside the SoCal Bight, especially the Santa
Barbara Channel. SCA winds may persist into the weekend at least
for some waters.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Thompson/MW
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...RM/Black/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office