389
FXUS66 KSGX 230513
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
913 PM PST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions expected to return Sunday. Locally gusty northerly
winds will weaken overnight. A gradual warming is expected for next
week, with high temperatures returning to above normal by the middle
of the week. A weak Santa Ana is possible sometime mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

At 9 PM a few scattered showers were lingering in the High Desert,
Coachella Valley, and desert slopes of the San Bernardino and
Riverside county mountains. Rainfall out of these scattered showers
is light, with rainfall rates less than 0.10 inches. Showers will
taper off over the next few hours with dry conditions expected for
Sunday through much of next week. There are some lingering gusty
northerly winds near the Cajon Pass where gusts are still in the 30
to 40 mph range with much weaker northeasterly winds elsewhere.
Those winds are expected to slowly weaken into Sunday morning.

From previous discussion issued 2 PM November 22...

Sunday, skies clear and high pressure builds and amplifies over the
western US, increasing high temperatures into the mid to upper 70s
by Tuesday. Behind the larger trough moving into the Eastern US, a
surface high pressure of around 1036 mbs will set up in the northern
Great Basin, increase the inland-coastal pressure gradient and
generating offshore winds as early as Tuesday afternoon according to
high resolution guidance. Offshore winds currently are set to peak
Wednesday, with moderate confidence for at least a weak Santa Ana
Wind event. Current guidance suggests north and east winds sustained
at 15-25 mph, gusting 35-45 mph and locally higher, targeting the
west facing foothill slopes and below the Cajon Pass, similar to
today. With high res guidance available through Tuesday afternoon,
confidence in the wind intensity outline above is moderate. The
upper-end scenario for a high wind intensity event is capped due to
the lack of mid and upper level support and likely will remain
confined to the passes/canyons and foothills. High temperatures
Wednesday and Thursday will likely be capped as well in the Inland
Empire due to the flow of this colder, but modified air due to
adiabatic compressional warming. The highest maximum temperatures
are most likely to set up in the valleys closer to the coast as a
result, approaching near 80F in some spots.

Beyond Thursday, ensemble solutions diverge on the track of an upper
low into the western US. The prevailing guidance suggests that a
cold upper level airmass will dive straight southward (then may even
retrograde a bit), close enough to Southern California to tap into
surface moisture and ring out a few showers for areas south of
Orange County. A slight deviation in the track east or west could
change the precipitation chances significantly.

&&

.AVIATION...
230400Z...SCT-BKN high clouds based 8-12 kft currently will move off
to the east by 12Z. Isolated -SHRA ending by 12Z for deserts and
eastern portions of the mtns. VFR conditions expected area wide
through Sunday evening. Patchy low clouds returning to coastal areas
and western valleys after 03Z Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Wednesday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE...KW

NWS San Diego (SGX) Office